Elementary Statistics, Sixth Edition (Bluman)

Chapter 4: Probability and Counting Rules

Would You Bet Your Life?

Humans not only bet money when they gamble, but also bet their lives by engaging in unhealthy activities such as smoking, drinking, using drugs, and exceeding the speed limit when driving. Many people don't care about the risks involved in these activities since they do not understand the concepts of probability. On the other hand, people may fear activities that involve little risk to health or life because these activities have been sensationalized by the press and media.

In his book Probabilities in Everyday Life (Ivy Books, p. 191), John D. McGervey states

When people have been asked to estimate the frequency of death from various causes, the most overestimated categories are those involving pregnancy, tornadoes, floods, fire, and homicide. The most underestimated categories include deaths from diseases such as diabetes, strokes, tuberculosis, asthma, and stomach cancer (although cancer in general is overestimated).

The question then is, Would you feel safer if you flew across the United States on a commercial airline or if you drove? How much greater is the risk of one way to travel over the other? See Statistics Today—Revisited at the end of the chapter for the answer.

In this chapter, you will learn about probability—its meaning, how it is computed, and how to evaluate it in terms of the likelihood of an event actually happening.